We
can't technically rule any of the 7 out, that's how they've done it on purpose.
If Jane doesn't know, we can't know. But it's about what fits best.
Haffner started out in FBI and was known for creative surveillence. This allows
him to make friends in the FBI and later CBI. It also allows him to keep a
secret eye on Jane, which would explain how he could work out Jane's list
without him knowing, and means there's no need for it to be Kirkland (who broke
in after Lorelei read Red John's message with the list). It also means he's
bound to be good with techonology, which fits all the hacking into CBI
networks, and perhaps mental hospital records (the only logical place where
Jane's memory of Eileen Barlow could have come out).
As Haffner, he's actual incredibly likeable, which would fit with gathering
followers. He's in the show little enough, but also just enough, that he'd
appear a red herring.
His two episodes are important though. S4E02 is when everyone except Jane
thinks Red John is dead, and presumably Red John thinks Jane thinks it too. So
what better way to stay close to, and maybe mess with, Jane than to become his
new boss, since he can't do it as Red John anymore? It would also fit if the
original plan was for Timothy Carter in the mall to actually be Red John, but
they had to switch once they got renewed for another season.
S5E13 sticks him alongside a Red John investigation, which he keeps a close but
secretive eye on, accidentally giving away his spying by asking about evidence
which he wasn't supposed to know about. At the same time, he tries to take
Lisbon away from CBI (a few weeks before Lisbon's wrist is mysteriously broken,
shortly after which Lisbon reacts differently to Haffner's name on the list compared
with the other names, perhaps a "Oh wow, Jane actually suspects Red
John!"). When Lisbon asks him whether he was at the barn, he dodges it in
a creepy, suspicious way (as if to say "I know you know I was there, but
you can't do anything about it"). Along with his Visualize membership,
this suddenly moves him from completely insignificant to blindingly obvious, so
much so that we just assume he's a red herring to throw us off.
The Visualize connection would explain Stiles' knowledge of Red John, how he
could have the money has, as well as another way for him to gather committed
followers, as many of them could be Visualize members too. It also fits with
the apparent connection between 'Tyger Tyger' and Visualize ("What
immortal hand or eye..." and the picture of a hand and eye on the
Visualize building).
As an extra pience of subjective evidence, the Red John smiley fits with a
Visualize connection (although since Red John was connected to Visualize in
1988, this could work for any of the 7). The Visualize eye is like saying
"I'm watching you", and the face could be too, which would fit both
Partridge, who is at most Red John crime scenes when CBI (and Jane) are. It
also fits with Haffner if he used creative surveillence to watch his murder
sights being investigated. Alternatively, the face appears a variation on the
eye: where the eye says "I'm watching you", the face looks to be
saying "Haha, look what I did!" in a smug way, which would be a
taunt, inspired by the Visualize eye. But again, very subjective.
Haffner also fits all the physical clues we have of Red John, such as his
height, his build, his hair, his being "not hard but not soft" (even
though Harker's testimony isn't necessarily reliable). Haffner is bland and
forgettable, but also likeable yet slightly creepy (his face just screams 'Red
John!' at me, but that is completely subjective), which would fit with nobody
batting an eyelid when he's been around CBI (poisoning Rebecca, walking in and
out with a cap on, riding a bicycle around.
We believe Red John to be married and have a wedding ring, and although I don't
remember seeing a ring on Haffner's finger, there could well be, and he seems
like the type to be married.
On top of all of this, Bruno Heller has said we would be disappointed by who
Red John is. Partridge, Bertram and Kirkland are too obvious to be
disappointing, Stiles is too awesome (and maybe too obvious) to be
disappointing, and Smith and McAllister have nothing to make them more likely
than any others (plus Smith is too fat). Since any of them COULD be Red John,
this isn't really evidence, but could be taken into account if you like. He
does, in a sense, hide in plain sight. Plus he shakes hands with Jane on
screen.
Icing on the cake of awesomeness that is this theory: 'Roy' and 'Ray' are a little bit similar.
The combination of actual plot presence, as well as the formula of writing such
a mystery, and the hints we've been given by writers, makes Haffner a perfect
fit. It's not hard, infallible evidence, and Red John could be any of the 7,
but Haffner makes most sense to me.
