To find Red John, you need to analyze the entirety of the evidence, not just a single item (like the way he held his teacup). What do we know about him?
He is male.
He kills women because he has some issue with them. He only kills men when they get in the way.
He is powerful and has many friends in law enforcement who instantly give him all of the information that he needs. As well as many other friends in all walks of life.
He is very wealthy (he can set up dummy companies, buy a farm to hold a girl for a friend, fly down to Mexico in no time send a limo to get Patrick that gets shot up and is untraceable, etc, etc.)
He is charming. This is key. He is not some creepy guy. He can convince a multitude of people to do terrible things. He has lots of friends and is generous with them.
He is incredibly smart. He has outplanned and outwitted everyone for years.
He has a life where he will not be missed by anyone when he needs to do his Red John thing.
He was in Visualize "as a kid." In 1988. Making him about 45+ now. (rules out Stiles)
He killed two (male) co-workers in 1988, but didn't start killing women until 1998.
He is about 6' tall, short straight hair and average build (rules out Bertram, and Smith)
He doesn't want to kill Patrick Jane or Teresa Lisbon. We can guess from that that he likes them (or at least likes sparring with them).
He shook hands with Jane before season 5 since Lorelei was in custody by then. (by the way, this rules out both Reede Smith and Bob Kirkland).
He has some kind of phobia.
He is very proud of what he does and how he has outsmarted Jane and not been caught.
OK. So who of the 7 suspects fits this description. Answer: no one. And even if that were not the case, the list was stolen and Jane knew it and was happy when it happened. So it is obviously bogus. The real list was in his notebook.
So of all of the characters on the show the entire series, how many fit this description? One. Walter Mashburn.
Lots of the characteristics are obvious. The physical look. The money and connections. Less obvious:
He was in reform school "as a kid." Not a great leap to think that he was in Visualize.
He had a problem with his mother (who he called "Mr. Mashburn.") He also had the love of his life break their engagement, and when that happened "something inside him cracked." He used to be sweet, but then he changed.
He sold his company "for billions." Right around 1998.
He has "a mild dirt phobia."
He was very antagonistic toward Jane when he first meets him. But then he gets to know him and really likes him (and Jane likes him back). And it is only a few episodes after they meet that Red John saves Janes life.
I always wondered why Red John would be watching some talk show where Jane was on, saw him diss Red John, and then managed to find where Jane lived, got there, killed his wife and daughter, wrote and left a typewriten note (including the fact that Jane had a daughter), and got out of there before Jane got back from the TV studio to his house. But I remembered when Mashburn said his former wife was into all that mumbo jumbo. My bet is that Jane was her psychic. Or at least Mashburn already knew about Jane. So he was watching the show and knew where he lived.
He is absolutely the most charming character the show has had. Other than Jane. The two make the perfect symmetry. Tyger Tyger.
