Hello everyone,
after a lot of thinking and re-watching episodes, I now decided to accuse Bret Stiles of being Red John. Here is why:
I am a fan of "Ockham's razor theory". This basically says that the answer with the least assumptions is the one to be prefered, because it is the most likely.
Now, in one episode, Patrick explains this theory to his colleagues. That means the writers are aware of this theory.
With that in mind, I re-watched several episodes which feature the suspects from the list.
To keep it short: Most of them seem very unlikely, both on-screen as well as off-screen. It turned out that McAllister would be a good suspect due to his suspicious behaviour against Van Pelt in S01E02. However, it makes no sense to make a one-time-guest-actor to become the main evil of the series.
Partridge again is sloppy, insecure and definitely not a ladies-man. How do you picture him gathering plenty of followers who happily give their lives for him? He is more likely to become obsessed with Red John and start a new life as a copy killer. ;)
Now, to rule out the others: Red John is someone unique. Someone extraordinairy. He is special, let's face it. At least this is how the character is drawn. We cannot expect anything less from him. He is a main ingredient of the show.
That fact alone rules out most other suspects. None of them has a personality that could make us believe he is such a big player as Red John.
None of them - except one: Bret Stiles. And now Ockham comes into play. I re-watched S03E03. And the clues are quite overwhelming. I watched this episode particularly with Ockham's theory in mind and it makes perfect sense. Please watch the episode to better understand what I mean. I will give only one example here:
At the end of the episode, Stiles hands out a paper with the address where Red John hides Kristina Frye. When asked how he knows what Red John is planning, Stiles replies cryptically that he knows so much more than Patrick and John. This of course is a completely meaningless reply and just says that he will not reveal his sources.
Ockham would say: There are two likely explanations: 1. Red John told Stiles the address. 2. Stiles is Red John. Before remembering Ockham, I always thought: This is way too obvious, but if you take into consideration that the writers are aware of Ockham, it is also likely that they use this tool for their storytelling. They trick us with so many things that they know that we wouldn't believe such a simple truth, even if presented on a silver plate to us. ;)
There are other scenes in this episodes that indicate Stiles being Red John. The "relationship" between John and Patrick is often described as some sort of, well, not "love", but something special from John's point of view. Stiles talks about this same, well, let's call it affection, that he feels for Patrick. He also refers to him as friend and even "my dear". This fits into the picture, too.
Then again, we all remember that some people (well, at least one) are surprised that Patrick and Red John are not best friends, because they are so alike. And while Stiles somehow (especially in later episodes) seems to seek out for some sort of friendship with Patrick, it is quite clear that while Patrick respects Stiles, he does definitely not consider him as a friend. (Otherwise, he would not be on the list anyway.) This speaks for my theory as well, because Stiles is (apart from Bertram, but he seems so unlikely to me that I do not even consider thinking about him) the only character with whom Patrick could befriend. All others did not even get the space for building up anything with Patrick.
So, yeah, this is basically my thought about who is Red John. I think I forgot one more "fact" I wanted to present, but it already is a wall of text anyway. ;) Thanks for your time.
