This is my thought process:
I’ve held back from sharing any theories for a long while, but my confidence has firmed since reading the US TV Guide feature review (of episodes 7 and 8) , which confirmed (as much as anything can be) two “facts” neither of which I’d have believed before reading it.
1. Red John really is one of the seven on the list.
2. RJ headed the TT organisation.
The writer of the article interviewed and quoted the actor playing RJ so obviously knows more than we do, and the article states both of the above as fact, not suggestion and not with any vagueness to it. So the above points would either be true, or would need to be intentionally false, with the author’s knowledge (which is unlikely).
Coupling with the above, I’ve made some assumptions:
1. All candidates cast into suspicion via the pathetically obvious phobia clues will not be red john. It would be below the show for this “clue” to be attached to the person who ends up being Red John. This is the most important plot resolution of the series and will ultimately define how its remembered. I’m counting on the writers to know using this as “ammo” to point to the real RJ would cement the show as mediocre and unworthy of us ever having watched it. This eliminates Haffner, Smith and McAllister.
2. Bret Stiles comment to Patrick Jane: “Trust me Patrick. I know so much more than you or Red John could ever imagine” is genuine. Stiles regards both Jane and Red John as beneath him and is not RJ. He knows RJ, and is probably tied to him in some way, but he’s not the man. (He would have been great though)
3. In hearing Janes plot in 6x06 Bertram’s first instinct is to make a call to share his information. If RJ is the leader of this group (as confirmed), then he is the likely recipient of the call. This rules Bertram out.
So far this rules out all 5 in the room in 6x06. I don’t think any of them is RJ and to be honest I can’t think of a way any of the 5 could be justified as RJ that wouldn’t be a weak plotline.
This leaves the two most unlikely suspects on the list. The dead guys, Partridge and Kirkland(s).
Michael Kirkland could be RJ. It could be that half the time we see Bob on camera it was really Michael. Or its possible we’ve seen Michael once or even never, and that he shook hands with Patrick a long time ago in the Carnival days rather than on camera. I can see a few holes in the Kirkland theory, and a degree of lameness about the twin plotline.
E.G I don’t believe both Kirklands were both roaming around CBI offices interacting with people, all the while with BK looking for MK. My gut feel is Kirkland2 is either dead (a total red herring), or will be part of the final plot as RJ’s assistant, but not actually the main man. He could have been the guy in 6x01 who drew the smiley face on Lisbon.
I consider him the second most likely on the list.
Lastly theres Partridge.
He’s someone I didn’t want to believe as RJ mainly because I couldn’t think of a way past the corny “I’m not really dead” storyline that wouldn’t disappoint me greatly, and because I disagreed with a lot of the rationale others used to suspect him. But if Partridge is RJ, and (as confirmed above) Red John is the head of TygerTyger, and we saw even the random prison guard willing to partake in a TT cover up, the chance that this death “stunt” could somehow get past everyone (except Jane) increases. And I think it becomes further of a possibility if Patrick Jane already knows Partridge is the man. This line of thought is not rock solid, but it would be fairly consistent with the show’s modus operandi for PJ to know who the bad guy is early in the piece, and for everything he does afterwards to be an elaborate misdirection to lure the real killer out.
I’m not that happy with this if it were right (I prefer RJ to emerge as an unknown from the shadows) but it would be neat enough and somewhat satisfying, and a lot better than him being any of the 4 live guys on the list who aren’t Stiles. And it being him would lead me to re-watch the show from the start knowing who RJ is.
Some loose ends I’m still pondering:
1. How did RJ get the 7 names?
2. Why would Kirkland kill Jason Lennon? If its Bob why isn’t he asking more questions, and whats with him talking as if he is being a friend. If its actually Michael why would he care if Lennon recognised him and he was already going to kill him?
3. Why Hightower?
4. Will the phobia clue be a complete red herring (as it has been so far), or will it actually play a key role in the way Jane eventually cleverly traps and beats Red John?
Thanks for reading! :)
