Who is Red John?

Theory #7233 • by EmH00

Suspect

Walter Mashburn

Walter Mashburn
Suspected in 325 theories

ARGUMENTATION

Regarding the 7 suspects, I feel we know far less than we have been led to believe and think we know.  I have always had major problems imagining any of the 7 as RJ--none of them is a credible RJ!  I also continue to have problems believing J would so easily reveal his true list to anyone.  If J really believed knowing the list would put someone in danger, I think he never would have told Lisbon regardless what she wanted.  J could not survive another murder equivalent to the murder of his family.  --By now, he has known Lisbon and the others nearly as long as he was married to Angela.  Further, the CBI team has saved each others' lives--not just your ordinary workplace relationships!  So, Mr. Heller has his work cut out for him if RJ will be one of the 7 suspects revealed at the end of S5/S6E1.

Further, the method by which J came up with the 7 final names seems both fallible and very atypical for him--a brute-force approach.  The whole thing hinges on Lorelei's statement, "It's a wonder the two of you didn't become lifelong friends the moment you shook hands!"  That was the basis for the 3 criteria stated in the episodes:

#1.  J and RJ shook hands
#2.  They shook hands AFTER J's family was murdered
#3.  RJ must be someone who could have been at all of the RJ murders

Re. #1:  This directly hinges on the truthfulness of Lorelei's statement.  (I think) J made the point that Lorelei said it in a heated conversation rather than a calm, thoughtful moment.  It seems reasonable the statement is true.  But note how LITTLE it actually excludes.  J and RJ could have become friends later.  J and RJ could have shaken hands many times.  They could have shaken hands at any time--before the murder of J's family, or, indeed, before RJ became RJ (started murdering!).

Re. #2:  Assuming J shook hands with RJ AFTER J's family was murdered is plausible, but not necessary logically.  This opens up the possibility of the J-RJ connection extending back to J's early days.  The person who became RJ could have known and disliked J before J's family was murdered.  J's TV comments then could have triggered the murder of his family.  Or, someone like Sean Barlow could have had a grudge against Alex Jane and taken revenge by attacking J and his family.  (Remember Judge Dellinger's point:  "If you want to hurt a man, don't kill him.  Kill his family.")  A Sean Barlow could easily have predicted that, as a psychic, J would work with police and comment on notorious murderers for the credibility and free publicity.  Either the murderer might attack J or his family, or, Barlow could have them murdered in the RJ style, certain that the serial killer would be blamed.  Finally, J could have known RJ before RJ became a murderer and shaken his hand then.  Shaking hands need not have anything to do with RJ killing J's family.

Re. #3:  It is an assumption that RJ personally committed all of his murders.  But what if he had a follower commit some murders in his style?  Then the whole methodology falls apart.  Further, there have been several cases of copycat RJ murders.  J would have to identify the actual RJ murders with 100% accuracy.

Further, it isn't credible that J wouldn't use everything at his disposal to whittle down a list of 2,000+ people.  He already admitted to eliminating women.  What about other characteristics?  Disability:  Could RJ be blind, rely on a wheelchair, or be weakened by disease (e.g., advanced MS, for instance)?  What about age--too young, too old?  And how does the Red Barn RJ-style murders change that criterion?  Would a famous face (e.g., TV star, important politician) eliminate someone from being RJ because he would be too identifiable?

Finally, I think the fans who have tried to use physical descriptions are on a fool's errand.  First is the question of whether all physical descriptions are of the same RJ person (vs. RJ and one or more disciples).  I put no faith in Rosalind Harker's description.  She is blind (we believe), but the bigger concern is whether she can be trusted, being that she's in love with Roy Tagliaferro.  Anyhow, physical characteristics are subject to change, especially over a long period (12+ years since the Orville Tanner RJ murder).  A person can gain/lose a lot of weight, and become much more or much less physically fit.  People may bald with age and balding people can use ointments to stimulate new hair growth.  Hair can be cut, straightened or curled.  People may go from a middle-aged appearance to definitely old over a 12 year period.  People can be ambidextrous.  How someone smells can change based on where they are currently living and what they are doing (construction project vs. city job).  Callused hands can become soft if you stop doing heavy physical work.  And people may even lose height with age (shrinking an inch is fairly common).  In short, I think the physical characteristics must be used very gingerly if at all.  Gender and significant differences in height--several inches, for instance--may be useful, but the rest is questionable.

Taking the J character as presented for the past 5 years, as presented, the list of suspects and methodology are both highly suspect.  If I had my druthers, Walter Mashburn would be an excellent RJ (worst part of it is I liked Mashburn--horrible thought!).  If I am FORCED to choose among the list of 7 suspects, it would be either Bret Stiles-plus-son/protege OR Sheriff McAllister.

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