Osvaldo Ardiles is returning in the Golden Hammer.  Ardiles was one of the names in Jane’s
notebook in 5x09.  My theory is based on
the idea that the list of seven suspects was RJ’s list given to Jane to expose
the Tiger Tiger group.  Think about what
we expected from the final RJ/Jane showdown. 
Jane would have some sort of elaborate plan and RJ would counter with
another elaborate plan.  That’s what we’ve
seen in past season finals:  two master
manipulators at odds.  In the Red John
episode, there was nothing suggesting that Jane had a brilliant plan and
McAllister’s plan of killing Jane and framing Bertram as RJ was rubbish.  What I’m suggesting is that both Jane and RJ
had brilliant plans and the audience just hasn’t caught on yet.



RJ’s Plan:

RJ saved Jane’s life in the S2 finale and gave Jane the clue ‘tiger,
tiger.’  This was RJ’s first attempt to
befriend Jane by trying to clue Jane into the existence of a corrupt club of
California law enforcement.  This
backfired on RJ because of the Todd Johnson murder case.   Jane believed Todd Johnson to be a RJ
associate when in fact Johnson was a tiger tiger member.  Instead of exposing tiger tiger, Jane
completely misses the target and starts planning a trap for RJ.  The Blake Association realizes Jane is
investigating the Todd Johnson murder and they frame Hightower.  Jane continues to think that RJ is behind all
of this.  Then you have the mall scene
where you have all the major players present. 
RJ knew to send Timothy Carter because he’s had Bertram’s office bugged
for ages to keep an eye on the Blake Association.  Bertram’s move is to frame RJ’s man O’Laughlin
with his ‘you’re at the end of your rope’ comment.  At this point, the Blake Association has
effectively framed RJ for everything that happened in S3 and completely messed
up RJ’s plans to befriend Jane.  This is
RJ’s reason for hating the Blake Association.  At this point RJ decides to stop playing with
Jane because Jane failed to live up to his expectations.  He sends O’Laughlin to kill Hightower and
anyone else at the cabin and he uses Carter to fake his death and hopefully get
Jane stuck in prison for murder.  It isn’t
until Jane sees through the faked death and reaches out to RJ in Blinking Red
Light that RJ decides to try again.  That
results in the S4 finale where RJ really shows his desire to convert Jane.  All of this sets the stage for RJ’s master plan
in the sixth season. 



When RJ learns that Jane knows he’s shaken RJ’s hand from
Lorelei, there are two options for RJ. 
He can kill Jane to neutralize the threat or he can finally succeed in
befriending Jane.  RJ sends Jane a list
of people that he suspects of being members of the tiger tiger club.  RJ got four out of seven correct which is
pretty good considering that it is a secret club (McAllister, Reed Smith,
Bertram, Partridge).  The S5 finale was
called Red John’s Rules and yet nobody really considered exactly what those
rules were.  Jane was to investigate the
list as if he was really looking for RJ until Jane catches RJ or RJ catches
Jane.  RJ’s plan to catch Jane was for
Jane to finally realize the involvement of tiger tiger in the S3 finale which
in RJ’s mind would result in Jane finally accepting RJ’s friendship.  That is why statements have been made saying
that part of RJ’s plan includes bad intentions to everyone on the list.  RJ is having his revenge on the Blake Association.



Now, in all the past season finales, Jane has made the first
move and RJ has responded and usually won. 
What Lorelei’s slip about them shaking hands changed is that RJ no
longer had the advantage of simply responding to Jane’s plans.  For the first time, RJ was forced into making
the first move and Jane will get to respond and there is no way that Jane is
going to play by RJ’s rules.

 



Jane’s Plan:

Jane’s real list of suspects was shown in Black Cherry.  It includes Brett Partridge, Ellis Mars, Dean
Harken, Jason Cooper, Walter Mashburn, Vint Molinari, Linus Wagner, Virgil
Minelli, Towlen Morning, and Osvaldo Ardiles. 
Now by the time the S5 finale rolls around, Jane has probably narrowed
the list down by crossing off Partridge, Molinari, Wagner, Morning, and possible
Harken.  It is of course obvious to Jane
that the list of seven suspects provided by RJ does not in fact include RJ but
part of Jane’s plan is to play along for a while and figure out why RJ would
send him a list of seemingly random names. 
Jane knows he’s been backed into a corner because the closer he gets to
catching RJ, the more people RJ is going to kill and you can bet that some of
those people will be the team members. 
At this point in the series, Jane has reached a point where he still
wants to catch RJ but not at the cost of losing Lisbon and getting the team
killed.  Jane needs more time to
investigate the suspects on his real list but things are moving too fast and it’s
getting far too dangerous.  RJ kills
Partridge and Jane’s old psychiatrist. 
Kirkland’s killing people from Jane’s fake list.  The Blake Association is killing people
including the PI that tried to bug the CBI. 
Jane’s plan is simple: break RJ’s rules. 
Jane exposes the Blake Association and then he fakes a RJ death.  To RJ it would look like Jane has proven
himself to be stupid again and he’ll lose interest and stop killing.  RJ will think he’s safe because no one is
looking for him and he’s no longer in immediate danger of being
discovered.  Any suspicions RJ has that
Jane’s still onto him will gradually die as Jane spends two years in South
America relaxing on the beach.  Jane
return to the states to work for the FBI won’t alert RJ because the FBI is
basically blackmailing Jane with McAllister’s murder to get him to work for
them.  This puts Jane in the perfect
position to take his time with investigating his real suspects for the rest of
the season starting with Ardiles in the Golden Hammer in January.



And here comes the explanation for exactly what we saw in the
Red John episode.



It all comes down to what happened in that house before it
blew up.   Jane has Reed, Bertram, and McAllister against the wall.
 McAllister breaks and starts confessing about the tiger tiger
organization, that's when the "no!" we hear before the gunshot
happens, Bertram yells to get McAllister to stop and Jane fires a warning shot
that stops all the commotion.  McAllister tells Jane about the tiger tiger
group and makes a deal with Jane to help him in exchange for immunity.
 Jane knocks Bertram and Reede Smith out.  He lets Stiles and Haffner
go in exchange for their promise to lay low until everything is over.
 Haffner is reluctant but Stiles agrees and promises that Haffner will do
as he's told.  They drive away in the car that passes Lisbon.  I
would even guess that Stiles plays a much larger role.  Jane is helping Stiles fake his death and I
think in return Stiles promised to bring Jane back to the States after two
years.  I’m guessing that one of the FBI
agents above Kim Fisher is a member of Visualize. Jane and McAllister go get
three bodies that Jane stole from the morgue and put them in the house.
 Jane also switched the DNA in the computer.  They drag Bertram and
Reede into the next room and Jane makes McAllister promise to meet in the
church in two days.  McAllister leaves and Jane blows up the house with
himself, Reed, and Bertram in the room over just before Lisbon gets there.



 Lisbon's
phone was bugged by RJ in the first episode of this season.  That was the
major clue, RJ called Jane on Lisbon's phone.  Where is Lisbon's phone?
 Jane stole it from her when he hugged her before abandoning her on the
side of the road.  Jane doesn't take the phone with him into the house
before he blows it up so the first RJ hears about the bomb is from the media
and perhaps from local police.  RJ assumes that the tiger tiger club set
the bomb to kill the tiger tiger suspects and Jane before the organization was
revealed.  



Jane announces to the press that Bertram is RJ and the manhunt begins.  At
the end of Fire and Brimstone, Jane goes to the church where he agreed to meet
with McAllister.  Jane lays out the plan to catch Bertram and RJ.
 McAllister is able to contact Bertram using secret tiger tiger methods
without letting Bertram know that he's still alive.  He instructs Bertram
to kill off Jane and suggests that Bertram pretend to be RJ to lure Jane in.
 McAllister and Jane finish planning and split paths.  Jane goes back
to his loft and recovers Lisbon's phone from where ever he put it so we know
that RJ is listening again.  All Jane has to do then is wait for Bertram's
call.



Moving on the the church scene.  Jane and Bertram have that little talk
and then Oscar shoots Bertram.  Now, Oscar knows McAllister so when
McAllister steps into the church, Oscar follows McAllister's instructions and
waits outside.  Jane still has Lisbon's phone with him so RJ hears the
entire pretend conversation between Jane and McAllister.  RJ thinks that
McAllister is the head of tiger tiger and is pretending to be RJ.  RJ hears
Jane defeat McAllister with a pigeon and then shoot him, shoot Oscar, and start
on the chase.  But the gun was a prop, so McAllister wasn't actually hurt
which explains why he was able to run a mile.  RJ hears Jane chase
McAllister down, the 911 call, Jane's disinterest in explanations, the psychic
claim, the sound of strangling and death, and Jane's call to Lisbon that it's
over.  Then Jane throws the phone away meaning that RJ no longer has ears
on the situation.  



I’m guessing that Jane and McAllister chose that murder spot because there was
a surveillance camera that recorded the whole “murder.”  The woman in the church was a member of
Visualize and we’ll see her in a flashback removing McAllister’s body from the
crime scene so that the police never actually find it.  The video and the witnesses will be enough
for the police to charge Jane with McAllister’s murder.  But McAllister isn’t dead, he’s just laying
low for the next two years.  I imagine
that McAllister committed crimes for tiger tiger in his youth, maybe even
helped to create the organization, and is working with Jane in exchange for
Jane’s promise to testify at McAllister’s trial.  All of McAllister’s help with exposing Tiger
Tiger and helping Jane with RJ should be enough to get him clemency. 



If I’m right, then in the upcoming episodes, we’ll see Jane “investigate”
Ardiles and then some of the other suspects on the list.  We’ll see either McAllister, Haffner, or
Stiles return and alert Lisbon to the fact that Jane’s been lying to her.  We’ll see a huge confrontation between Lisbon
and Jane.  Jane will reveal a large
portion of his plan to Lisbon but not all of it.  Jane and Lisbon will get closer to
discovering who RJ is while working FBI cases. 
There will come a moment when RJ realizes he’s been cornered.  Lisbon will have her moment to confront RJ
and probably punch him.  Jane and RJ will
finally meet face to face and have the discussion we’ve been waiting for six
years.  RJ will have his final curtain
call when he kills Van Pelt and Rigsby.  Jane
will kill RJ.



RJ will be Walter Mashburn.